VOLUME XXXII NO 9-10
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After N. Korea's Nuclear Test:
"Now, We Should Give a Lesson to the North That It Should Have Not Done This"
Chinese President Hu Jintao (right) greets South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 13, 2006. In their summit, the two presidents agreed to work together to peacefully resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis and get the communist regime back to the Six-Party Talks.
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and Chinese leader Hu Jintao on Oct. 13, 2006, agreed to work together to peacefully resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis and get the communist regime back to the Six-Party Talks. The two leaders agreed to support "appropriate and necessary measures" by the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) against North Korea for its claimed nuclear test, carried out on Oct. 9, 2006.
In their summit in Beijing, Roh and Hu also reaffirmed their previous agreement that history problems, such as China's claim on the ancient Korean kingdom of Goguryo, should not become an obstacle to bilateral ties. The top agenda was Pyongyang's nuclear test in defiance of international warnings. The two Presidents described it as "unacceptable," while urging Pyongyang to stop any action that would aggravate the situation.
On the historical disputes, Seoul voiced concern over China's controversial new project which categorizes all historical events that happened within its territorial boundaries as part of Chinese history, even if evidence says otherwise.
After their one-on-one summit, Roh and Hu have reached an "important agreement" over the North Korean nuclear standoff, which their aides said is about "effect-oriented" countermeasures against Pyongyang's claimed nuclear test. "China and South Korea have so far closely cooperated with each other to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem," Roh told journalists. "But, we agreed to continue our joint efforts to resolve the standoff."
As the top security aide to President Roh, Song Min-soon who accompanied Roh on the one-day trip to China told reporters that the U.N. resolution should be in line with the involved nations' efforts to achieve their common and fundamental goal. "We warned that North Korea would have nothing to win but only to lose if it conducts a nuclear test," he said. "Now we should give a lesson to the North that it should have not done this."
"The engagement policy clearly did not work and unfortunately had to bear witness to North Korea's nuclear test, but I do not believe it was the direct cause of it," the president said in a recent meeting with security and diplomatic experts.
According to the security official, the Seoul government should follow the U.N. decision, as it is necessary to encourage North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions and cooperate with the outside world at the same time. "No matter how strict the sanctions are that we may impose on them, it would be impossible to cause the North's collapse," he said. "It would take at least 10 years to see any remarkable changes in the North's attitude even if China joins the moves. But it is clear that there would be a series of military skirmishes between the two Koreas."
The South Korean government on October 15 welcomed the UNSC resolution adopted unanimously to sanction North Korea for its nuclear test. The government reaction came hours after the 15-member Security Council approved the resolution that ruled out military measures, but decided to inspect cargo going to and from North Korea to prevent trafficking in weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Branding the North's nuclear test a "clear threat to international peace and security," the Security Council passed the resolution under the U.N. Charter's Chapter 7 that authorizes all U.N. member states to implement sanctioning measures. "The government respects the Security Council's decision and will faithfully implement it," said Choo Kyu-ho, spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The U.N. resolution bans the supply, sale or transfer of armored vehicles and all kinds of military goods to the North; all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology that could contribute to Pyongyang's WMD-related programs; and luxury goods for North Korean leaders, including Kim Jong-il.
North Korea on October 18 rejected the UNSC resolution imposing nonmilitary sanctions on the communist state for its nuclear test and vowed to take appropriate counter-measures. Calling the resolution a declaration of war, the North's Foreign Ministry said in a sharp-tongued statement, "We will closely monitor the U.S. acts and take appropriate steps.
"If any nation dares to menace our sovereignty and autonomy with an excuse of the UNSC resolution, they would be brutally and mercilessly punished," it said.
The statement is the first official response from North Korea since the Security Council unanimously passed the resolution. The resolution bans the transfer of financial resources related to missile or other weapons of mass destruction programs to or from the reclusive North.
It warned that the United States should not miscalculate the outcome of such moves, saying that North Korea would not be defeated no matter how strict the sanctions the outside world imposes.

South Korea's engagement policy and ongoing economic projects with North Korea should go on despite the escalating security situation following Pyongyang's claimed nuclear test, according to a high-ranking Unification Ministry official. The remarks came amid increasing pressure on the government to halt engagement and economic projects with the North, including the Mt. Geumgang tourism and the Gaeseong Industrial Complex projects.
"There will be more to lose than to gain if we stop the ongoing inter-Korean business projects," the official told reporters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. "By halting the projects, we will show our firm determination to North Koreans, but there's nothing else to gain."
Pyongyang has earned about US$20 million a year from Gaeseong and Mt. Geumgang, triggering a strong suspicion that the money might have been diverted for the North's nuclear weapons programs. But the government has not budged at all, and it is not expected to change its policy of economically engaging North Korea.
The South Korean government could consider some operational changes of the Mt. Geumgang tourism and Gaeseong Industrial Complex projects in North Korea, but has no plans to stop the inter-Korean economic businesses, a top official said on October 19.
"South Korea will not give up its cross-border tourism project despite concerns that they could undermine international efforts to curb the Stalinist state's nuclear weapons program," said Song Min-soon, senior presidential secretary for security affairs.
Speaking at a security forum in Seoul, Song said, "The government is in the process of coordinating its position on the matter among different ministries and with other relevant nations, including the United States."
South Korea's "Sunshine Policy" of engaging its secretive neighbor has been under fire since Pyongyang's proclaimed nuclear test. But now, a growing number of voices claim that it is not the engagement policy itself but the lack of it that has resulted in the current crisis. Critics say that because of hostile U.S. policies toward the isolated Stalinist state, engagement has been half-hearted and never tried in a fullfledged way.
Christopher Hill, Washington's point man on Pyongyang, claimed on Oct. 16, South Korea's tourism business to Mount Geumgang appears to serve as a financial revenue stream for the communist regime. After meeting his South Korean and Russian counterparts in Seoul on Oct. 17, Hill described the Mt. Geumgang project as a source of revenue for the cash-strapped Kim Jongil regime, indicating that Washington opposes the project.
"I think that the Gaeseong complex is designed to make a long-term investment in human capital, and the Mt. Geumgang project seems to be designed to give money to the North Korean authorities. So, I have my view that they are two very different kinds of projects," said Hill.
Hill, after an hour-long meeting with South Korea's Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok, told reporters, "It is the South Korean government, not the United States, that needs to reflect on the Mt. Geumgang tourism project. These are all issues that the South Korean government needs to reflect on the basis of interest of Korean people, and the United States respects their rights to make these decisions."
Arriving in Seoul, he urged, "South Korea and China need to form a united front to show North Korea that it will pay a very high price for its recent nuclear test. We need to work very hard with our partners and allies to implement the UNSC resolution."

As speculation increases that North Korea is possibly preparing for yet another nuclear test, South Korea is losing reason to maintain its engagement policy toward the defiant state. A perfect example of Seoul's dilemma is the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), an international network led by the United States against trade of weapons of mass destruction and related materials.
U.S. President George W. Bush announced the global initiative on May 31, 2003, basing the project under the U.S. National Strategy to Combat WMD issued in December 2002. With a goal to "create a more dynamic, creative and proactive approach to preventing proliferation to or from nation states and non-state actors," the initiative says that actions will be taken in consistency with national legal authorities and relevant international law and frameworks.
Following the announcement, 11 countries agreed in September 2003 to the PSI Statement of Interdiction Principles, identifying steps for interdicting WMD shipments and preventing proliferation facilitators. So far more than 70 countries have joined. Participation is voluntary.
U.S. President George W. Bush warned North Korea on October 19 of a "grave consequence" if it tried to sell nuclear arms. In his sternest message to Pyongyang since its October 9 nuclear test, Bush vowed the United States would use whatever means necessary to keep North Korea from proliferating nuclear arms beyond its borders.
And he made clear that Washington, which has not ruled out military options, would take strong action if North Korea tried to sell nuclear weapons to America's enemies. "They would be held to account," Bush told ABC News when asked how he would handle North Korea if it attempted to send nuclear arms to Iran or Al-Qaida. "If we get intelligence that they're about to transfer a nuclear weapon, we would stop the transfer, and we would deal with the ships or the airplane that was dealing with taking the material to somebody," Bush told ABC News in an interview. The remaining three activities by South Korea include formal participation to the PSI and providing physical support to regional drills and also to drills outside the region. The South Korean government contends that joining the five programs is sufficient level of participation to the international campaign against WMD trade. The two Koreas currently have their own legalities concerning the passage of vessels in their respective waters.
Under the inter-Korean maritime agreement signed in August 2005, the two Koreas agreed to allow only commercial vessels to pass through their waters. Fishing boats and warships are not allowed. The agreement also bans any military activity, submarines, transportation of weapons, collection of information via vessels, or fishing. In cases of violation, the two sides have agreed to intercept and inspect suspicious vessels.
The agreement, however, also has fallouts as it is only viable in territorial waters. The two Koreas remain at debate over their sea boundaries. They currently operate under the Northern Limit Line (NLL) unilaterally drawn by U.N. Army chief Mark Wayne Clark immediately after the 1953 cease-fire treaty.
The South has often faced the threat of danger over the NLL. Most significantly in June 29, 2003, two North Korean patrol ships crossed the NLL and continued southward. They fired at two South Korean vessels out of defense, prompting a sea battle. After 25 minutes the North Korean ships receded but left six South Korean marines killed and 19 injured.

For now, the South Korean government admits the necessity of expanding participation in the PSI. But it says possible dangers and the staunch opposition voiced by liberal lawmakers and civic groups must be considered before deciding on the extent of its participation.
The latest U.N. resolution 1718 underlies the U.S. intention to expand the PSI members to include all of the 192 U.N. member states. It would also help the United States fill the loopholes of PSI in regard to open seas.
While PSI member states will be responsible for taking care of suspicious vessels in their own seas, it is against the international law to intercept and inspect vessels traveling in the open sea. As part of its measures following the U.N. Resolution against North Korea's nuclear test, the government is reviewing ways to bolster cargo inspections and to adjust the list of products allowed to be delivered to the North.
The Unification Ministry did not confirm the details and said the final decision is yet to be made. The measures under consideration also include direct wage payment to North Korean workers at the Gaeseong Industrial Park in an effort to increase transparency.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged Seoul to use its leverage to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table, saying that she did not come to South Korea to dictate what Seoul should do. "Everyone should take stock of the leverage we have to get North Korea to return to the Six-Party Talks," she said at a joint news conference with Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Ban Ki-moon.
Rice's remarks in Seoul on October 19, the second leg of her four-nation tour, were interpreted as putting pressure on South Korea to effectively implement inspections of cargo going to and from North Korea to prevent trafficking of the WMD.
But she tried to brush off the impression that Washington is goading Seoul into a hard-line policy against North Korea. "I did not come to South Korea nor do I go anyplace else to try to dictate to governments what they ought to do," she said.
Seoul has been worried that friction during the inspection process could develop into full-scale armed conflict. But Rice underlined that the United States has no desire to do anything to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula or at sea, saying such a negative development "could not be more wrong."
Rice's trip to Northeast Asia was aimed to rally support for the UNSC resolution to punish the North's nuclear test and coordinate ways of enforcing it. However, she was met with calls in South Korea and China urging that the U.S. take a more flexible attitude toward North Korea.
Chinese President Hu Jintao urged all the parties concerned to "act cautiously" to resolve the situation. "We are willing to make common efforts with all sides to deal with the issue calmly and to act cautiously to prevent the situation from deteriorating or losing control," Hu told Rice. In separate talks with Rice, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said, "The Korean nuclear issue is at a crossroads. It's in the interest of all parties to resolve the Korean nuclear issue through diplomacy and dialogue. Apart from that, I can see no other choice."
In a press briefing in Washington ahead of her departure to Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Moscow, Rice said, "The United States will wait for the results of South Korea's review of its inter-Korea policies. This trip is an opportunity to reaffirm our reciprocal obligations." She indicated that Seoul, as a maintainer of regional security, shares responsibility for pressuring North Korea.
"For the major powers of Northeast Asia, North Korea's behavior has clarified the strategic interests that we share," she said. "To advance these common interests, every country in the region must share the burdens as well as the benefits of our common security." She emphasized that the UNSC resolution on North Korea "has set new international standards" on nonproliferation and is a signal for countries like Iran. "North Korea's behavior has clarified the strategic interest we share," Rice told reporters. Rice said North Korea needs to understand that they "will pay a price here" for defying the international com-munity twice, first with its multiple missile launches in July and now with a nuclear test.
Ban, speaking in regard to Washington's rising speculation over the transparency of inter-Korean projects, said, "Gaeseong Industrial Park is efficient in reforming and opening North Korea. The Mt. Geumgang tour also has a high significance. I believe that the U.S. side is also well aware of it." He said, "The Seoul government will make the necessary adjustments in operations of the two flagship projects with the North."
Rice reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to defense agreements with South Korea and called their alliance one of the first pillars of stability and security of the region as a whole. "The United States takes its obligations under our defense arrangement very seriously and will act on those obligations," she added. Following the talks, diplomats of South Korea, the United States and Japan met over dinner and reaffirmed their common goal to implement the U.N. Resolution but remained ambiguous about how to augment sanctions against the defiant state.
Ban and Rice later joined Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso, who came to Seoul for three-way talks. Ban said that a possible second nuclear test by North Korea would aggravate the current situation. "We agreed that in case it happens, there should be more grave consequences," he said.
Ban, Rice and Aso agreed on the importance of cooperation in implementing the U.N. resolution and urged North Korea not to take any more actions that would worsen the situation. They reconfirmed that the framework of the Six-Party Talks remains valid to pursue North Korea's dismantlement of its nuclear program.
They said the best outcome would be for North Korea to accept the obligations stated in U.N. Resolution 1718 and returning unconditionally to the Six- Party Talks. "The strength of the Six- Party Talks, rather than bilateral talks, is that at the table, countries have both the rights of disincentives and rights of incentives for North Korea to take a different role. Ultimately it is a combination that will lead to the right outcome," Rice said.

Chinese President Hu Jintao's special envoy delivered an important message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as part of a "significant" mission to Pyongyang, according to the Chinese foreign ministry. Tang Jiaxuan, leading a delegation of senior Chinese government officials, arrived in the North Korean capital on October 18, carrying a "message from President Hu Jintao," spokesman Liu Jianchao told reporters. Liu described the visit as extremely important in trying to resolve the crisis triggered by North Korea's atomic test. "This is a very significant visit against the backdrop of major changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula," Liu said. The Kim-Tang meeting was the first confirmed face-to-face contact between a Chinese official and the North Korean leader since the nuclear test. North Korean leader Kim told the Chinese envoy that his country has no plan to conduct additional nuclear tests, according to Yonhap News Agency on October 20. Quoting an unnamed diplomatic source in Beijing, Yonhap said that Kim also made the promise to abide by the 1992 agreement between South and North Korea to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. "In his meeting with Chinese State Councilor Tang, Kim was known to have clarified his stance that there will be no additional nuclear test," said Yonhap.
It said that if Kim's position is confirmed to be true, it would raise hopes for the resumption of the Six-Party Talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program and defuse the tension esca-lated by North Korea's detonation of a nuclear bomb. "If the U.S. makes a concession to some degree, we will also make a concession to some degree, whether it be bilateral talks or Six-Party Talks," North Korean leader Kim was quoted as saying by the domestic daily, Chosun Ilbo, which cited diplomatic sources in China.
The United States, Japan and South Korea cast doubts on the reports. U.S. Secretary of State Rice cast doubt on reports that North Korea had pledged not to stage another nuclear test. She said in Moscow that she had not heard from China's special envoy to North Korea. Tang had not told her that Kim either apologized for the test or said that he would not ever test again.
Officials in Seoul said the latest development could be regarded as a positive sign. But they added it has yet to be seen whether Pyongyang would return to the negotiation table since it has made similar "conditional" suggestions before.
"Maybe, the North has just left the doors a little bit open for talks in the face of a strong message from China this time," an official said. "We have a principle that it should come back to the talks without any conditions."
China and the United States gave distinctively different reactions to the Chinese envoy's recent meeting with the North Korean leader. Chinese government sources said that the North Korean leader indicated, "He will not go ahead with a second nuclear test."
The contrasting remarks indicate the different positions that the two countries are taking in handling North Korea's nuclear crisis. Seoul experts said, "While China wants to lead the situation towards resuming negotiations, the United States wants to maintain pressure against the North."¡Ú